The Houston Rockets have their hands full with Russell Westbrook in round 1

The Houston Rockets take on the Oklahoma City Thunder (OKC) in the first round of the playoffs after the Rockets finished the season with the third-best record in the Western Conference, as well as the entire NBA. The Rockets won the season series against OKC, three games to one.

This will be the first time ever that the top two candidates for the Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award face each other in the first round when the Rockets’ James Harden goes up against OKC’s Russell Westbrook.

That brings us to the Rockets’ biggest and most obvious challenge in this series: limiting Westbrook’s impact.

Since the departure of superstar Kevin Durant last season, OKC’s entire offense runs through Westbrook. He leads the NBA in shots per game and usage percentage, so the Rockets know exactly what he is going to do. However, Westbrook’s athleticism and sheer determination when attacking the rim still make him almost impossible to stop.

The Rockets’ biggest x-factor in this series will be Shooting Guard and Defensive Specialist Patrick Beverley, who will be tasked with guarding Westbrook as he usually does.

Westbrook and Beverley had many confrontations in the past due to Westbrook’s dislike of Beverley’s aggressive, physical style of defense. Some NBA fans blame Beverley for intentionally trying to injure Westbrook in a playoff series in 2013 on a play that caused Westbrook to miss the playoffs and have knee surgery.

In order for the Rockets to contain Westbrook, Beverley will have to be physical and get under his skin to make him uncomfortable. However, that has not worked very well this season as Westbrook has averaged 36 points per game against the Rockets.

One reason why every game between these two teams this season is very close is because James Harden has struggled against OKC’s lengthy defenders.

OKC’s Andre Roberson was very successful in containing Harden in the regular season and will be tasked with the same challenge as Beverley, guarding the opponent’s best player. Harden was held to only 20 points per game against OKC this season and shot terribly from the field and 3-point line.

Even if Harden does not play well, the Rockets are still plenty capable of scoring a lot of points due to his terrific passing ability that allowed him to lead the NBA in assists this season.

Harden is surrounded by excellent 3-point shooters such as Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon, Louis Williams and Beverley, whose shooting abilities create space for Harden to drive to the basket. When the defense collapses on Harden, the Rockets’ shooters are capable of knocking down open shots to keep the offense running smoothly even when Harden’s shot is not falling.

Another big challenge for the Rockets will be how well the Rockets’ big men handle OKC’s excellent big men trio of Enes Kanter, Steven Adams and Taj Gibson in the paint.

Kanter has given the Rockets many problems this season, as his scoring ability in the low post has been too much for Rockets’ Centers Clint Capela and Nene Hilario. OKC usually runs their offense through Kanter in the post when Westbrook is out of the game, so the Rockets may look to double team Kanter in order to get the ball out of his hands and take away his advantageous one-on-one matchups.

Kanter and Adams are both relentless offensive rebounders and much bigger than Capela, who often struggles against big, physical centers. In order to limit OKC’s possessions and keep the ball out of Westbrook’s hands, Capela will have to make a concerted effort to box them out really well as soon as the shot goes up.

Prediction

 The unstoppable force of nature that is Russell Westbrook will play very well because the Rockets don’t have the interior defense to stop him. However, he cannot win a series playing as a one-man show and his points will not be enough to outscore the Rockets.

I expect Harden to make adjustments and take advantage of the mismatches he creates in the pick and roll with OKC’s slow-footed big men. The Rockets will take and make a lot of open threes created by Harden’s attacking, and I don’t think OKC has enough firepower on offense or defense to keep up with Houston’s fast-paced attack behind the arc.

I think the Rockets will win this series in five games, 4-1.

Also published on Medium.